Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Official Figures

The average number of per-day homicides per month in Mexico has fallen by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by fresh government statistics. But, public safety specialists have cautioned that murder numbers may not signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Notable Reduction in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of almost 55 murders a day in last November compared with roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the director of the country’s federal public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded over these past months is remarkably notable,” the President stated, adding that in November the lowest number of homicides were documented for any November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Strategy

Intense drug cartel rivalries, coupled with the administration's heavily military campaigns to combat the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety strategy for an apparently more pronounced drop in killings in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the plan, and there is detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The central elements of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Enhanced collaboration between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide numbers to paint a picture of improved security was misleading. This is especially true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year versus the same period the previous year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the capacity or the desire to accurately recognize and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly means of daily killings was similarly problematic because it may mask periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders surges of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, according to government data. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme violence, with multiple regions in the midst of cartel-related conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the country to show their anger at corruption and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a picture of improvement. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” the analyst said.