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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help accelerate the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only sometimes appeared to be interested.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been finalized at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara refused to yield. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turkish government with some cover.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was needed. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but global cooperation has empirically had an impact in the battle with global heating. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead discussion groups at multiple summits he has attended.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. For example, civil society is essential at environmental summits. How, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. However, this doesn't prevent this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, the nation and the global community. This attempt is justified.