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Australia captain Pat Cummins has revealed that his participation in the opening Ashes Test appears unlikely due to ongoing fitness concerns.

Recent reports from Australia had indicated that Cummins might be ruled out of the entire series, though the fast bowler himself has now given a more comprehensive update on his situation.

Injury Timeline

The 32-year-old has been struggling with a back stress injury that has prevented his participation since his last competitive match in July.

Although Cummins has resumed running training, he has yet to commence bowling as part of his recovery program.

"It's difficult to assign a percentage on it, but my assessment is probably less likely than likely," commented Cummins. "We get into begins next week, so probably a couple of weeks away from wearing the spikes and delivering on turf."

Fitness Requirements

Australia coach Andrew McDonald had earlier suggested that Cummins would need a minimum of four weeks of bowling preparation to have any chance of featuring in the first Test, scheduled to begin on November 21.

Cummins supported this assessment, explaining: "It's necessary to have at least probably a month in the nets. If you play a Test match, you want to ensure you're capable to bowl 20 overs in a day without concern."

Series Implications

Given the compressed timeframe, there are also concerns about Cummins' availability for the following match in Brisbane on December 4.

Should Cummins be unavailable, former skipper Steve Smith is expected to lead the side, with Scott Boland possibly stepping in in the pace department.

Australia have held the Ashes urn since 2018, while The visitors are without a Test victory in Australia since 2011.

Historical Context

Cummins' current fitness issues echo challenges from earlier in his successful career. He made his Test debut as an 18-year-old in 2011 against South Africa, becoming the second-youngest player to take a five-for in an innings at that time.

However, his explosive debut proved to be a false dawn, as Cummins endured six years before his next match due to multiple stress fractures in his lower back.

Career Achievements

When fit, Cummins has proven himself as one of cricket's elite fast bowlers. The 32-year-old has taken 309 Test wickets at an remarkable average of 22.10.

His record in Australia is even more impressive, with 177 wickets at 19.92, while he has taken 91 wickets against England in just 19 matches.

In the most recent Ashes series in 2023, Cummins played in all five Tests, taking 18 wickets and establishing his importance to the Australian side.

As captain, Cummins enjoyed a successful 2023, taking six wickets in Australia's victorious World Test Championship final and excelling in their 50-over World Cup final win against India.

He remains the only leader in Test history to win the World Test Championship, World Cup, and an Ashes series.

Team Concerns

England also face their own fitness concerns with captain Ben Stokes, who has been affected by a shoulder injury since the Test series against India.

Both teams will be monitoring their key players closely as the highly anticipated Ashes series nears.