‘A Critical Scenario’: Hostilities on Iran Squeezes India's Cooking-Gas Supplies.

The shockwaves of a war being fought nearly a significant distance away are now being felt in India's homes.

As military actions on Iran hinder energy shipments through the vital shipping lane, supplies of cooking gas are tightening across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, close earlier and in some cases close completely.

Social media is awash with video clips showing crowds outside cooking-gas dealers across Indian cities and towns as anxieties over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The state of affairs is alarming. LPG simply isn't available," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on industrial fuel canisters or piped gas, and the lack of supply are now being experienced across the country. "Many restaurants have ceased operations - some in Delhi, many in the southern region. People are switching to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, local news say up to a significant portion of eateries are already fully or partly shut as business fuel stocks tighten. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some restaurants say their gas stocks have dwindled with little backup. "We can only make coffee and no other dishes - it is extremely difficult. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are scrambling to adapt. "Offering lists are shrinking, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are fluctuating as supplies wax and wane. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - two have already reopened. It's a dynamic scenario."

Retailers note a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the officials maintains there is sufficient stock.

India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say cylinders are being prioritized to households as tensions from the regional hostilities impact energy markets.

Approximately 60% of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those shipments pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the war.

The petroleum ministry says that it directed refineries to maximise LPG output for domestic use, lifting domestic production by about a significant margin. Commercial stock is being allocated for vital industries such as healthcare and education, while distribution will be "just and open".

"A degree of anxious stocking and accumulation has been caused by rumors. The standard supply timeline for home fuel remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Spreading Anxiety

Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a long, snaking queue of two-wheelers outside a fuel station. "The panic is real," the description reads.

According to data from market experts, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports almost all of its oil. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of discounted Russian crude, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on maritime intelligence and credible market sources, additional Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, narrowing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently floating on ships in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The key weakness is LPG, analysts say.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the chokepoint.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through diversification. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable. Kitchen fuel stocks is the key factor to track in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the concern on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the common threat of stockpiling.

An industry representative alleges opportunistic profiteering.

"Distributors are exploiting the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and sold to the highest bidder."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be cushioned by global trade flows. But in restaurants across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next gas canister.